Health care, education and financial services--if you're looking for work in the coming decades, these are the fields to get into.
What to avoid? The usual suspects. According to the projections by the U.S. government, manufacturing jobs are expected to decline by more than 5% by 2014 as production moves overseas. Same goes for textile workers, such as sewing machine operators, who will see a 36% drop in employment. Technology will kill off more office positions, such as file clerks. They'll see a 36% drop in their ranks by 2014. Digital cameras will zap the manual photo processing industry by about 30%. And that guy who comes around to read your electric meter? Expect to see a lot less of him, too.
But these are the obvious victims as the U.S. moves from a goods-producing economy to a services-producing economy. More interesting are the jobs that are likely to experience slower than average growth (average being about 13%). This is where the surprises are.
Like computer programmers. Despite all the advances--and expected job growth--in the computer industry, expect the number of programmers to increase by about 2% between 2004-2014. Why? Outsourcing. Americans who want a career in this field should find a specialization, like cybersecurity.
Another endangered species: journalists. Despite the proliferation of media outlets, newspapers, where the bulk of U.S. reporters work, will cut costs and jobs as the Internet replaces print. While current events will always need to be covered (we hope), the number of reporting positions is expected to grow by just 5% in the coming decade, the Labor Department says. Most jobs will be in small (read: low-paying) markets.
Radio announcers will have a tough time, too. Station consolidation, advances in technology and a barren landscape for new radio stations will contribute to a 5% reduction in employment for announcers by the middle of the next decade. Even satellite radio doesn't seem immune from the changes. The two major companies, XM and Sirius--which now have plans to merge--have regularly operated in the red.
Anyone who regularly books their flights online can tell you why the travel agent business is in jeopardy. So here's a surprise: The Department of Labor only predicts a 6% drop in travel agent jobs by 2014. The demand for luxury and specialty travel, and increased spending on tourism, will buoy the industry somewhat. If you do plan to be a travel agent, best to find a niche field or specialize in specific-destination trips. Travel agents might also find success in organizing groups of foreign visitors to their home markets. But remember, the travel industry is highly connected to swings in economic conditions.
Worse off? Federal employees and their amazing benefits. Washington employs nearly 2 million people, not including the military, making it the country's largest employer. After Sept. 11, 2001, it expanded significantly due to homeland security needs. But those days may be coming to an end. By 2014, federal government jobs--excluding the Postal Service-- will only have increased by about 1.6% above 2004 levels due to the transfer of some jobs to state and local governments and the increased use of private contracting companies. Don't believe it? A report compiled by a House of Representatives panel earlier this year found that government spending on contracts rose by 103% between 2000 and 2005.
Should you be discouraged if a career you pinned your hopes on is not expected to grow? Not at all, says Anthony Spadafore, director of Pathfinders, a career counseling company in Alexandria, Va. He says that if people pursue their fields that play to their talents, they'll be able to compete for the top jobs where competition is fierce, even if the industry is diminishing.
"The idea of shrinking and hot fields, we think it's sort of a rudimentary way of looking at things," Spadafore says. "Believe it or not, there's still a need for bank tellers."
Dream Jobs
At a dinner party, you've got to go around the table and ask the obligatory questions: What's your name? What do you do?
Accountant--boring. Broker--typical. Professional videogame player--this guy has got to be kidding me. How cool! Why can't I do that?
Yes, there are those jobs out there in the workforce that many people would rather be doing, especially if it involves games, sports or lingerie models. Most of us would settle for anything that doesn't include gray walls and a cube.
However, nothing is what it seems. Take a professional gamer or videogame designer for example. While the compensation is outstanding considering the nature of the job, it's all-consuming, and there are no guaranteed checks every two weeks.
As a professional gamer, if you're not the best, you don't get paid. It's all about competition and endorsement deals. Typically, this profession (who would've ever expected it to be a real job?) is reserved for a younger demographic.
For one, it's the younger generation that grew up playing Nintendo (otcbb: NTDOY - news - people ), unlike their parents, who were just excited to get a color TV in their house as a kid. Excluding prize money from major events, a pro gamer could earn as much $70,000 to $100,000 a year. According to PayScale.com, a games designer earns an estimated $70,000, settling for a more consistent job than the guy who just plays them for a living.
Ready to quit your day job yet?
Picture this: It's hurricane season, and a cruise ship gets bombarded by a storm on the Atlantic Ocean. There are 1,200 crew members, who hail from 47 different countries, trying to corral and communicate with the 3,600 vacationers aboard this rocky vessel.
With every modern instrument and decades of experience at the captain's disposal, the ship braves the storm without incident. Sure, a dozen passengers complain, but about nothing of consequence.
Just another day at the office for Captain Salvatore Rassello.
"When you are a leader, the higher you are, the more wind you get," Rassello said, recalling the words of a mentor, and by which he now commands. "It's true. When it comes to a decision that involves the risk of human lives, then it's important for me to be right."
Rassello--who was born on the island of Procida off the shore of Naples, Italy--talked to Forbes.com via phone while midway through skippering a seven-day Caribbean Cruise.
He explained that being the captain of a ship is as much a science as it is a test in communication. Rassello, 52, has been a captain for Carnival Cruise Lines (nyse: CCL - news - people ) since 1996, moving up the ranks since joining the sea-faring staff in 1983. He had ventured all around the world at sea as a cargo-ship captain, but now serves as master of the 110,000-ton Carnival Glory out of Port Canaveral, Florida, one of 22 ships in the Carnival fleet.
As one might expect, the job pays well. Carnival wouldn't share specific salary information, but did explain that the captains operate on contracts that include four months at sea and two months off on a rotating basis.
Joe Cox, president of the Chamber of Shipping of America, a lobbying group for commercial shipping, said these cruise-liner captains could earn an estimated $250,000 a year. That, of course, varies by company and contract.
But he said that number isn't so unusual considering the amount of responsibility involved, including the constant safe passage of thousands of human beings. "These guys are not only well educated, but to get up there, they spent a considerable amount of time at sea," Cox said. "Think about it. They're the managers of a considerable asset for a company."
Then there's the guy who stares at models through a camera lens half the day and gets paid about $2,000. That's J. Edward Hall, a Chicago-based fashion and glamour photographer. Hall has been in the business 10 years, capturing still images of some of the most beautiful women on the planet on location throughout the world. Easy, right? Hardly.
Hall said it's an arduous and super-stressful process, and definitely a labor of love. A decade in, he's fully immersed in the business, with great connections and endless opportunities. It's not exactly a cake walk though. Every shoot is like planning a major motion picture, from location to stylist, equipment to permits.
He said if you don't love it, get out.
So you see, it's not that simple--not for a gamer, a photographer, a greeting card writer, a weatherman, a cruise-ship captain or for the road crew of a major rock band. These are the types of jobs that, as cool as they sound, have their drawbacks, too. Whether it's an issue of pay or having to sacrifice a personal life to succeed, it makes the desk job not seem so bad.
Just love what you do. Now get back to work.
These days, jobs that offer total security are few and far between. Granted, no job is completely bulletproof. But there are some that come close (barring criminal activity or other gross misconduct, of course).
Although there's a lot of school and plenty of vetting to endure, perhaps nothing is more steady than becoming a federal judge. Sure, it's nearly as impossible as becoming president (that's a reasonably secure job too), but once candidates get approved by Congress, they receive lifetime appointments.
Out of thousands of federal judges, only seven have ever been convicted and removed from office. Reasons for removal from the bench range from perjury to tax evasion to mental illness. What constitutes an impeachable offense? In answer, President Gerald R. Ford once put it this way: Anything the Congress says is an impeachable offense.
If being nominated by the Congress seems too challenging, becoming a tenured educator might be a bit easier to achieve. Those in the field are quick to point out that getting tenured doesn't mean having a job for life. It means there must be "just cause" for removing the employee. The educator receives due process, similar to what American citizens expect when charged with violation of a law, according to the National Educators Association. They have the right to a fair hearing, and administrators have to prove their case.
Some unionized employees can have similar protections. While contracts differ from union to union, one thing remains the same. "Before companies can do a significant lay-off, they're obligated to discuss and bargain with the union and seek alternatives," says Tom Conway, vice president of the United Steel Workers Union.
In the Steel Workers Union, when a company says they're bringing employees in to work eight-hour days, five days per week, they're required to pay the staff even if they don't have enough work to give them. If a shortage of work becomes extreme, they can use the supplemental unemployment benefit that pays employees about 80% of their wages.
But as Conway points out, if there's a turndown in business during the length of the contract, the union and the company work together to figure out what other options are available. For example, downturns are a good time to get union members additional training and skill sets.
"We can't guarantee that the product you make will always be there, but we do guarantee that we can get in the room and discuss changing how to deal with it," says Conway.
Ever think of becoming a civil service employee? Those are the people employed by federal, state and local government agencies. Virtually every type of job imaginable exists within those guidelines. These are often considered more secure jobs since the process for removal is so intricate.
To fire someone for poor performance, the administration must prove that doing so will "promote the efficiency of the service." Talk about subjective. From there, the administration's action must be supported by a preponderance of evidence. Plus, the employee must be given 30 days written notice of poor performance and from there has between 30 and 90 days to improve his or her work. After all of that, if the employee is fired, he or she has the right to an appeal process.
Even religious vocations are no longer the totally unassailable career they may have once been. The traditional perception of the Roman Catholic priesthood was of being a job for life, no matter what. Today, that's certainly not the case. Sister MaryAnn Walsh, a spokeswoman for the Conference of Catholic Bishops, said, for example, it used to be that priests who had been proved to have sexually assaulted children were treated with therapy; today that is unacceptable. "When there is a credible accusation of pedophilia, a priest is removed from the ministry," she says. That means there's no room and board or any other type of caretaking.
Some jobs are secure simply because they're in such high demand. Nursing fits that category. They are at the top of the Department of Labor's 10 fastest-growing occupations. There are several reasons for the growth, including an aging population and chronic illness.
And nurses need not focus their job search only at a hospital or doctor's office. They're also hired to work as insurance investigators, quality-control representatives, in medical sales and in research and development.
But Cheryl Peterson, a senior policy analyst at the American Nurses Association, says that while there might be job security now, a change in the structure of the health care system might alter that.
"Back in the early '90s, there was a nursing shortage," says Peterson. "Then, in '92 or '93, the spiraling cost of health care and managed care caused lay-offs of nurses. We're having a shortage now because so many nurses are retiring, combined with the aging population. If the health care system that exists today stays this way, we will continue to have a shortage. Whether something comes along that disrupts that is always a possibility."
Outsourcing, of course, has affected the workforce. But there are jobs that can't be moved overseas. For instance, doctors, home health care workers, fire fighters, law enforcement officers and long-distance truck drivers all show up among jobs that can't be sent to India or Asia.
At least, not yet.
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